Market Breadth Metrics

What differentiates a bear market rally from a durable market advance?

Earnings, or fundamental do not make that list.  They deteriorate well after the market bottoms.

The answer is rate market breadth metrics.  Here are a few that have raised the probability that the market is in the early innings of a durable market advance.  

​1)  When the % of S&P stocks above 50 day moving average moves from <= 15% to >= 90% within 50 days, forward 12 month returns are above average

Source: Quantifiable Edges

2) When % of S&P stocks above 50 day moving average moves from < 10% to >= 85% over the past 20 years, forward 12 month returns are above average

Source - Mark Ungewitter @mark_ungewitter

3) When S&P 500 has a 4 week win streak and gained 10% or more while below the all-time high weekly close, forward gains were positive in each case over next 12 weeks

Source - Steve Deppe

​4) ​When the S&P 500 gains 10%+ over 2 months with negative training 6 month returns, the forward 6 and 12 month returns are strong

Source - Steve Deppe

5) When the % of stocks above their 50 day moving average crossed 55%, forward returns were positive

Source - Ned Davis Research, Renaissance Macro Research