For the Eye care community, the year ’20-20’ was supposed to be the year of Perfect Vision. It turned out to be anything but that. The world was chaotic. While the markets reflected our societal chaos for some time, they rebounded with a fury that very few believed in. Central banks and governments globally responded by pumping money into markets and with a speed that we had never seen before. When it became clear by the middle of 2020 that a vaccine would be ready within 6-9 months, it was clear that an economic expansion was inevitable. Remember that markets are forward-looking mechanisms, and if the Pandemic of 1918 ran its course in two years, why would Covid-19 last much longer than that? While the market’s reaction has surprised some, it is rational and logical.
I wrote about the most important and profitable investment themes of 2020 ..... well in advance!
The question that I get most is – will the market crash in 2021? The simple answer to that is ‘I have no idea’. I hope that my inter-market process that picked up on the Covid crash will come to my aid again and help in avoiding another meltdown. In all honesty, that is the wrong question. We are in the early innings of a (2-3 year) economic expansion and all my energy is focused on multiple emerging themes that I am chewing over and excited to write about.
A simple heuristic is …. watch the Fed. When the Fed over-tightens - and the Fed will - markets will peak, and the next economic downturn will ensue. Every recession has started with an overtightening, and the next one will not be an exception. Until then, focus on the opportunities at hand.
These notes serve as a real-time diary of my investment operation. I hope it has helped bring clarity to your thinking. I am grateful for the feedback that I have received. I look forward to those. I say this begrudgingly – knowing that many are hurting – Latticework had an incredible year in 2020 and I look forward to writing more consistently in 2021. While 2020 was far from the year of ‘perfect vision’, I pray that 2021 does not disappoint the Eye care community once again.
This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase an interest in Latticework Partners, LP (the "Fund"). Such an offer will only be made by means of a confidential offering memorandum and only in those jurisdictions where permitted by law. An investment in the Fund is speculative and is subject to a risk of loss, including a risk of loss of principal. There is no secondary market for interests in the Fund and none is expected to develop. No assurance can be given that the Fund will achieve its objective or that an investor will receive a return of all or part of its investment.
This material contains certain forward-looking statements and projections regarding the future performance and asset allocation of the Fund. These projections are included for illustrative purposes only, are inherently speculative as they relate to future events, and may not be realized as described. These forward-looking statements will not be updated in future.
I am an investor and these are my personal thoughts on investing, behavioral finance, markets, and sports viewed through the prism of a Latticework